Final Four Preview

Georgetown-Ohio State

A classic battle of throwback bigs, Roy Hibbert and Greg Oden square off in the early game tonight. But the battle won't be won or lost by a divergence of talent between these two future-NBA centers. It will more likely be governed by the whistle. If either Oden or Hibbert pick up early fouls and are forced to play less than 25 or 30 minutes, the opposing team will win the game. Both Hibbert and Oden are such game-changers simply by being on the floor; each team will desperately need to keep them out of foul trouble. Assuming the pair of giants each stay on the court, the game will come down to their talented teammates.

Mike Conley Jr. has been phenomenal at the point in each game of this tournament, boosting his stock with every performance. He is lightning quick, a fantastic decision maker, and always forces action with his ability to penetrate and either dish or finish. Most importantly, Conley seems not to know he is a Freshman. When the games are on the line, Conley maintains his cool like a seasoned veteran.

Speaking of seasoned veterans, Ron Lewis has taken his game to an entirely new level; one that nobody even knew existed. If Ohio State could somehow go all the way, Lewis is likely the tournament MVP. Hitting big shot after big shot (maybe he stole Acie Law's talent in a Space Jam scam), Lewis is putting up 22 ppg in the tournament, and that's including a 13 point performance in the first round blowout of Central Connecticut State. Lewis will need to be a leader for this freshman-heavy squad in order to beat Georgetown.
Ohio State is solid across the board with the nation's best sixth man, Daequan Cook, coming off the bench, and serviceable players like Jamar Butler, Ivan Harris, and Othello Hunter. Hunter may play a big role in this game since Georgetown can go big with Green and Ewing or Summers at the forwards (about 6'8"-6'9" apiece) and Hibbert in the middle. I also believe that Hunter should get more attention on the offensive end; he's an underrated post player who doesn't get the ball enough. Ohio State needs to cut down on the threes and start feeding the post.

Thad Matta did an unbelievable recruiting job this year, but I'm not sold on some of his coaching decisions; allowing his team to fire long-range jumpers instead of looking for Oden and Butler is one of them. The other area where I disagree with Mata is on the defensive end. The Buckeyes often show a 2-2-1 full court press which is easily broken by getting the ball into the middle and then throwing diagonal passes up the court. This leaves Oden alone, floating around trying to block shots, but often picking up key fouls. OSU is athletic enough to play a very tough man-to-man defense, and against a Georgetown team with good passing big men to play the middle against that 2-2-1 press in Hibbert and Green, using the zone press could prove to be a fatal mistake for Thad Matta and his squad.

Georgetown's guards, Jonathan Wallace, Jesse Sapp, and mini-Doc Rivers (Jeremiah) off the bench, are quite solid. They don't do anything spectacular, but they don't make many mistakes either. Ohio State's backcourt is more dynamic, but not necessarily more likely to breed success, which is problematic for them because Georgetown's frontcourt is one of the best in the nation. Already having proven their abilities by taking down one of the nation's two other best frontcourts in North Carolina (Florida is the other), the foursome of Roy Hibbert, Jeff Green, Dajuan Summers, and Patrick Ewing Jr. might be too much for the Buckeyes to handle. Jeff Green finally stepped it up last round, with 22 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists. He is an incredibly versatile player that fits into any situation. On top of that, Georgetown is a system team, and a disciplined one at that. John Thompson III (how many famous sons can one team have?) has done a fantastic job this year, and should guide them one round further to the coveted championship game.

Prediction: Georgetown 79, Ohio State 71.

Florida-UCLA

I was hoping last year's championship game would be the last time I ever had to look at Joakim Noah and Lorenzo Mata at the same time. No dice.

Much like Georgetown-Ohio State, this game could come down to the frontcourt. If UCLA can somehow neutralize the attack of Noah and Al Horford, they have a good shot at winning the game. Problem is, UCLA's best true big man, Lorenzo Mata, is no better than Florida's number three, so to speak, Chris Richard. Luc Richard Mbah A Moute macthes up better with Corey Brewer than Noah or Horford. Once he gets stuck on Horford, the result is Josh Shipp or Arron Afflalo giving up 4 inches in Brewer. Then they still have Taurean Green running the point and stroking threes along with Lights Out Lee Humphrey, who has been on fire of late. As I've said time after time, Florida just has too many great options for anyone to stop them.

That being said, don't count UCLA out just yet. It's hard to imagine that a team that started the season in the top 5, and spent the duration of the year there, could be underrated--but they have been of late. After a couple of late-season losses, everyone seemed to forget about UCLA, counting them out as a major contender. Remember, UCLA made the championship last year, and all they lost was Jordan Farmar. Yes, he was the leader of that team...but Darren Collison is better! Collison is the consummate point guard, looking to pass first and shoot second, yet willing to take the big shot and put his team on his shoulders when they need him to. Furthermore, Collison and Afflalo are both amazing defenders--in fact the whole UCLA team is fantastic defensively. If you stop the other team from scoring, that would seem to put you in a very positive situation.

So what must happen for UCLA to win? Well, an array of things.
One: Arron Afflalo must continue to play the way he has been playing thus far in the tournament. Points are sometimes few and far between for this team, and Afflalo needs to be their savior--their only source of consistent offense.
Two: Lorenzo Mata must own the boards and shut down Joakim Noah. If you can neutralize at least one of the two lottery-pick bigs for Florida, you give yourself a chance to win.
Three: Alfred Aboya needs to step his game up. Mbah A Moute's fellow Cameroonian, the sophomore only plays about 17 minutes per game off the bench, but he is 6'8 235 pounds, and will need to give them good minutes pounding against Horford underneath. He is one of there only big bodies underneath, so it is crucial for him to contribute.
Four: Collison and Mbah A Moute have been consistent all year, and that must continue tonight. They don't need to do anything spectacular, but merely play within themselves and make their normal contributions. Collison needs to control the game completely in order to put his team in position to win.
Five: Michael Roll needs to knock down a couple of three-pointers off the bench. Roll is a great shooter who has improved and looked more comfortable as the season has gone on. I still think there should be an 'E' on the end of his last name, but that's neither here nor there. If he could be even a poor man's version to UCLA of what Humphrey is to Florida, it would give them a huge boost.

If those five things all fall into place for UCLA, or at least four of them, they might just snag tonight's game out of the grasp of the Goliath that is Florida. It's certainly possible, but don't hold your breath.

Prediction: Florida 75, UCLA 68