Georgetown-Ohio State
A classic battle of throwback bigs, Roy Hibbert and Greg Oden square off in the early game tonight. But the battle won't be won or lost by a divergence of talent between these two future-NBA centers. It will more likely be governed by the whistle. If either Oden or Hibbert pick up early fouls and are forced to play less than 25 or 30 minutes, the opposing team will win the game. Both Hibbert and Oden are such game-changers simply by being on the floor; each team will desperately need to keep them out of foul trouble. Assuming the pair of giants each stay on the court, the game will come down to their talented teammates.
Mike Conley Jr. has been phenomenal at the point in each game of this tournament, boosting his stock with every performance. He is lightning quick, a fantastic decision maker, and always forces action with his ability to penetrate and either dish or finish. Most importantly, Conley seems not to know he is a Freshman. When the games are on the line, Conley maintains his cool like a seasoned veteran.
Speaking of seasoned veterans, Ron Lewis has taken his game to an entirely new level; one that nobody even knew existed. If Ohio State could somehow go all the way, Lewis is likely the tournament MVP. Hitting big shot after big shot (maybe he stole Acie Law's talent in a Space Jam scam), Lewis is putting up 22 ppg in the tournament, and that's including a 13 point performance in the first round blowout of Central Connecticut State. Lewis will need to be a leader for this freshman-heavy squad in order to beat Georgetown.
Ohio State is solid across the board with the nation's best sixth man, Daequan Cook, coming off the bench, and serviceable players like Jamar Butler, Ivan Harris, and Othello Hunter. Hunter may play a big role in this game since Georgetown can go big with Green and Ewing or Summers at the forwards (about 6'8"-6'9" apiece) and Hibbert in the middle. I also believe that Hunter should get more attention on the offensive end; he's an underrated post player who doesn't get the ball enough. Ohio State needs to cut down on the threes and start feeding the post.
Thad Matta did an unbelievable recruiting job this year, but I'm not sold on some of his coaching decisions; allowing his team to fire long-range jumpers instead of looking for Oden and Butler is one of them. The other area where I disagree with Mata is on the defensive end. The Buckeyes often show a 2-2-1 full court press which is easily broken by getting the ball into the middle and then throwing diagonal passes up the court. This leaves Oden alone, floating around trying to block shots, but often picking up key fouls. OSU is athletic enough to play a very tough man-to-man defense, and against a Georgetown team with good passing big men to play the middle against that 2-2-1 press in Hibbert and Green, using the zone press could prove to be a fatal mistake for Thad Matta and his squad.
Georgetown's guards, Jonathan Wallace, Jesse Sapp, and mini-Doc Rivers (Jeremiah) off the bench, are quite solid. They don't do anything spectacular, but they don't make many mistakes either. Ohio State's backcourt is more dynamic, but not necessarily more likely to breed success, which is problematic for them because Georgetown's frontcourt is one of the best in the nation. Already having proven their abilities by taking down one of the nation's two other best frontcourts in North Carolina (Florida is the other), the foursome of Roy Hibbert, Jeff Green, Dajuan Summers, and Patrick Ewing Jr. might be too much for the Buckeyes to handle. Jeff Green finally stepped it up last round, with 22 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists. He is an incredibly versatile player that fits into any situation. On top of that, Georgetown is a system team, and a disciplined one at that. John Thompson III (how many famous sons can one team have?) has done a fantastic job this year, and should guide them one round further to the coveted championship game.
Prediction: Georgetown 79, Ohio State 71.
Florida-UCLA
I was hoping last year's championship game would be the last time I ever had to look at Joakim Noah and Lorenzo Mata at the same time. No dice.
Much like Georgetown-Ohio State, this game could come down to the frontcourt. If UCLA can somehow neutralize the attack of Noah and Al Horford, they have a good shot at winning the game. Problem is, UCLA's best true big man, Lorenzo Mata, is no better than Florida's number three, so to speak, Chris Richard. Luc Richard Mbah A Moute macthes up better with Corey Brewer than Noah or Horford. Once he gets stuck on Horford, the result is Josh Shipp or Arron Afflalo giving up 4 inches in Brewer. Then they still have Taurean Green running the point and stroking threes along with Lights Out Lee Humphrey, who has been on fire of late. As I've said time after time, Florida just has too many great options for anyone to stop them.
That being said, don't count UCLA out just yet. It's hard to imagine that a team that started the season in the top 5, and spent the duration of the year there, could be underrated--but they have been of late. After a couple of late-season losses, everyone seemed to forget about UCLA, counting them out as a major contender. Remember, UCLA made the championship last year, and all they lost was Jordan Farmar. Yes, he was the leader of that team...but Darren Collison is better! Collison is the consummate point guard, looking to pass first and shoot second, yet willing to take the big shot and put his team on his shoulders when they need him to. Furthermore, Collison and Afflalo are both amazing defenders--in fact the whole UCLA team is fantastic defensively. If you stop the other team from scoring, that would seem to put you in a very positive situation.
So what must happen for UCLA to win? Well, an array of things.
One: Arron Afflalo must continue to play the way he has been playing thus far in the tournament. Points are sometimes few and far between for this team, and Afflalo needs to be their savior--their only source of consistent offense.
Two: Lorenzo Mata must own the boards and shut down Joakim Noah. If you can neutralize at least one of the two lottery-pick bigs for Florida, you give yourself a chance to win.
Three: Alfred Aboya needs to step his game up. Mbah A Moute's fellow Cameroonian, the sophomore only plays about 17 minutes per game off the bench, but he is 6'8 235 pounds, and will need to give them good minutes pounding against Horford underneath. He is one of there only big bodies underneath, so it is crucial for him to contribute.
Four: Collison and Mbah A Moute have been consistent all year, and that must continue tonight. They don't need to do anything spectacular, but merely play within themselves and make their normal contributions. Collison needs to control the game completely in order to put his team in position to win.
Five: Michael Roll needs to knock down a couple of three-pointers off the bench. Roll is a great shooter who has improved and looked more comfortable as the season has gone on. I still think there should be an 'E' on the end of his last name, but that's neither here nor there. If he could be even a poor man's version to UCLA of what Humphrey is to Florida, it would give them a huge boost.
If those five things all fall into place for UCLA, or at least four of them, they might just snag tonight's game out of the grasp of the Goliath that is Florida. It's certainly possible, but don't hold your breath.
Prediction: Florida 75, UCLA 68
Saturday, March 31, 2007
Monday, March 26, 2007
Weekly Thoughts
Here are some assorted thoughts on last week's tournament action (and a few other things):
-Who had the worst week ever? Joey Dorsey. Apparently his pathetic performance in Memphis's win over Texas A&M was not even remotely humbling for Dorsey. Instead, the inconsistent big man felt it necessary to tell the world that he was at least as good as the much heralded and "overrated" (if you ask Dorsey) Greg Oden. Dorsey promptly followed his horrible performance in Thursday's victory with, shockingly, an even worse one in the loss to Ohio State. Oden put up 17 points and 9 rebounds despite foul trouble once again limiting his minutes; Dorsey managed to not score a single point in the entire game. Dorsey could not have dropped his stock more even if he tried to in this tournament. Between his big mouth and not-so-big production, NBA GM's across the country are thinking "maybe we should stay away from this guy..." Hopefully for Dorsey, Isaiah Thomas will draft him with the Knicks first round pick and start him over David Lee--the best rebounder in the league.
-No matter what happens next week, this tournament has to go down as one of the most boring ones over the last 10 years. I love March Madness more than anyone, but it's hard to deny that this year left us yearning for a couple more shocking first-round upsets, a few double-digit seeds making the Sweet Sixteen, someone other than 7 of the top 8 seeded teams making the elite eight...well, you get the picture. It was almost inevitable that after a whole year of wondering "who will be this year's George Mason!?", a run that will likely not be replicated for decades, we would end up disappointed.
-I mentioned in the last stock watch that Tajuan Porter is a "burning or freezing" kind of player. Well he showed us both--after his lights out performance in the UNLV victory, he was ice cold against Florida, going 0-9 from the three point line until the last couple minutes. He's easy to love when he's on fire, and, well, still pretty easy to love when he plays poorly. Come on, who doesn't root for (as Raftery would say) THE LITTLE GUY!?
-Was anyone even remotely surprised upon hearing Ron Artest was talking about retiring? Normally, when one of the better players in any league discusses retirement in their mid-20's, everybody is completely and totally shocked. But we've become so numb to the Artest antics that nobody even flinched when they heard about his domestic violence charges that landed him a restraining order against a family. One can't help but laugh at the fact that this is the same family who he wants to retire to spend more time with. Maybe basketball is getting in the way of writing them e-mails.
-Kobe Bryant is without question the most talented player in the NBA. His 4 game streak of 50-point performances is one of the most impressive individual performances in modern sports. And what's more, the Lakers actually won all four games by a few points each, Kobe shot well above 50% from the field, and everybody knew he was shooting any time he had the chance. Essentially, Phil Jackson said "score more points" and Kobe abided. He truly is unstoppable.
-Greg Oden should not have made the AP All-America 1st team. This isn't a "who's gonna be the best pro" team, it's who performed best. Why is Oden, who missed the first seven games of the season and then averaged 15 ppg on the team over a guy like Jared Dudley, who led the ACC in both scoring and rebounding and carried an extremely mediocre team to a respectable season. Oden had a good freshman season, but it was not worthy of being named one of the five best players in the nation.
-Florida demonstrated their versatility once again. If Humphrey continues to shoot that well from the arc, the Gators will repeat without too much trouble (as I've believed the would all season...please let me be right about something!). Which brings me to another interesting point; there is a very real possibility that Florida and Ohio State could meet in the National Championships of both college football and basketball in the same calendar year. After getting thrashed by the underdog Gators in the BCS championship, and then again during this basketball season, could anything be more of a kick in the balls than losing the basketball championship to them too? Furthermore, if Florida wins it all, they will have won the last three championships in the two major college sports, an unbelievable feat. Throw in the story of the four junior roommates staying in college to win another championship together, the potential subplots could ruin our lives for the time leading up to the big game.
-Who had the worst week ever? Joey Dorsey. Apparently his pathetic performance in Memphis's win over Texas A&M was not even remotely humbling for Dorsey. Instead, the inconsistent big man felt it necessary to tell the world that he was at least as good as the much heralded and "overrated" (if you ask Dorsey) Greg Oden. Dorsey promptly followed his horrible performance in Thursday's victory with, shockingly, an even worse one in the loss to Ohio State. Oden put up 17 points and 9 rebounds despite foul trouble once again limiting his minutes; Dorsey managed to not score a single point in the entire game. Dorsey could not have dropped his stock more even if he tried to in this tournament. Between his big mouth and not-so-big production, NBA GM's across the country are thinking "maybe we should stay away from this guy..." Hopefully for Dorsey, Isaiah Thomas will draft him with the Knicks first round pick and start him over David Lee--the best rebounder in the league.
-No matter what happens next week, this tournament has to go down as one of the most boring ones over the last 10 years. I love March Madness more than anyone, but it's hard to deny that this year left us yearning for a couple more shocking first-round upsets, a few double-digit seeds making the Sweet Sixteen, someone other than 7 of the top 8 seeded teams making the elite eight...well, you get the picture. It was almost inevitable that after a whole year of wondering "who will be this year's George Mason!?", a run that will likely not be replicated for decades, we would end up disappointed.
-I mentioned in the last stock watch that Tajuan Porter is a "burning or freezing" kind of player. Well he showed us both--after his lights out performance in the UNLV victory, he was ice cold against Florida, going 0-9 from the three point line until the last couple minutes. He's easy to love when he's on fire, and, well, still pretty easy to love when he plays poorly. Come on, who doesn't root for (as Raftery would say) THE LITTLE GUY!?
-Was anyone even remotely surprised upon hearing Ron Artest was talking about retiring? Normally, when one of the better players in any league discusses retirement in their mid-20's, everybody is completely and totally shocked. But we've become so numb to the Artest antics that nobody even flinched when they heard about his domestic violence charges that landed him a restraining order against a family. One can't help but laugh at the fact that this is the same family who he wants to retire to spend more time with. Maybe basketball is getting in the way of writing them e-mails.
-Kobe Bryant is without question the most talented player in the NBA. His 4 game streak of 50-point performances is one of the most impressive individual performances in modern sports. And what's more, the Lakers actually won all four games by a few points each, Kobe shot well above 50% from the field, and everybody knew he was shooting any time he had the chance. Essentially, Phil Jackson said "score more points" and Kobe abided. He truly is unstoppable.
-Greg Oden should not have made the AP All-America 1st team. This isn't a "who's gonna be the best pro" team, it's who performed best. Why is Oden, who missed the first seven games of the season and then averaged 15 ppg on the team over a guy like Jared Dudley, who led the ACC in both scoring and rebounding and carried an extremely mediocre team to a respectable season. Oden had a good freshman season, but it was not worthy of being named one of the five best players in the nation.
-Florida demonstrated their versatility once again. If Humphrey continues to shoot that well from the arc, the Gators will repeat without too much trouble (as I've believed the would all season...please let me be right about something!). Which brings me to another interesting point; there is a very real possibility that Florida and Ohio State could meet in the National Championships of both college football and basketball in the same calendar year. After getting thrashed by the underdog Gators in the BCS championship, and then again during this basketball season, could anything be more of a kick in the balls than losing the basketball championship to them too? Furthermore, if Florida wins it all, they will have won the last three championships in the two major college sports, an unbelievable feat. Throw in the story of the four junior roommates staying in college to win another championship together, the potential subplots could ruin our lives for the time leading up to the big game.
Saturday, March 24, 2007
Friday Stock Watch (Stars and Stiffs)
STOCK UP (STARS)
Taj Gibson - USC's only formidable big man, the freshman standout certainly pulled his weight in the Trojans valiant effort against an over-talented North Carolina squad. Gibson had 16 points and 12 rebounds, and that hardly tells the story. USC dominated their fellow acronymic opponent in the first half in which Gibson had already notched a double-double (12 and 10). He was single-handedly destroying the deep Carolina front court, especially Hansbrough. In the second half, he picked up three very quick fouls (giving him four total) and had to be taken out of the game, at which point UNC immediately took over. Had Gibson stayed out of foul trouble, the Trojans could be playing Sunday for a spot in the Final Four.
Tajuan Porter - My favorite player left in the tournament, the diminuitive Oregon guard has been a hot or cold player all season long. Actually, he's been more of a burning or freezing player. Friday, he was on fire. Standing at only 5'6", Porter is often overlooked by his opponents (no pun intended). In the Sweet Sixteen matchup with UNLV he managed to torch the Runnin' Rebels with 33 points on only 17 field goal attempts. The freshman Porter was 8-12 from the three-point-line, and simply took over the game. He continues to make a convincing argument that despite his tiny stature, he could be perhaps a better shooting version of an Earl Boykins-type player at the next level; he has that same lightning quickness.
Branden Wright - Friday was a good night for freshmen. Branden Wright, the likely number 3 overall draft pick after Oden and Durant, carried a desperate UNC team to the Elite Eight. With Tyler Hansbrough pulling a disappearing act that Harry Houdini would proud of, Wright came to the rescue. Wright is almost disturbingly long and athletic, but he's more than just another player with "tremendous upside"; he's been playing phenomenal basketball and is incredibly polished for a 19-year-old. Against USC, Wright put up 21 and 9, and also proved to be the most mature player on the team, not taking an uncontested dunk with 25 seconds left, an opportunity that Reyshawn Terry would be salivating over. His maturity was more broad than that though; Wright maintained composure even when his team was trailing by 16 points, and was without question the best player on the floor in the second half of that game.
Gabe Pruitt - USC has been missing two things all season long: frontcourt depth, and true point guard. They couldn't magically manufacture another big man to solve the former, which proved to be a fatal flaw, but Pruitt did a fantastic job of satisfying the latter. The natural shooting guard successfully turned himself into a point guard, which, in addition to solidifying USC as a great team, should help Pruitt as a professional prospect. Somehow, there is more appeal to an oversized sharp-shooting point guard than an undersized shooting guard. Pruitt was able to relieve the pressure on freshman Daniel Hackett, another natural 2 who had been trying to play the point. He finished the UNC game with 13 points, 7 assists, and only 2 turnovers.
Malik Hairston - Originally the most highly touted of Oregon's potent foursome of Hairston, Taylor, Brooks, and Porter, Malik stepped it up in their victory over UNLV. At only 6'6", the shooting guard pulled down 11 boards to go along with his 14 points on only 8 shots. Hairston is a very solid shooter, a great athlete, a fantastic defender, and rock solid at 200 pounds of all muscle. The junior is relatively young for his grade--he just turned 20--and if he continues to play like this for the remainder of the tournament and into next year, he should get the NBA looks that seemed imminent when he first came to Oregon.
Al Horford - Al Horford is better than Joakim Noah. Granted, both players will be good NBA players and top-7 draft picks. Granted, Joakim Noah is more unique and interesting due to his hair, his father, and his skill set. Granted, Noah was the focal point of their championship run last year. But Al Horford has been more consistent all season. His performance on Friday was not jaw-dropping, but with 16 points and 7 rebounds, and 4 blocks, Horford continued to be extremely solid for a Gator team that is positioned for a repeat. He's a much better athlete than Noah, and handles the ball and sees the floor extremely well for a 6'10"-240 pound-power forward. He has an invaluable mid-range jump shot in his repertoire, is a great shot-blocker. Horford has put up more points, rebounds, and blocks than Noah throughout the season, and I expect him to be an All-Star at some point in his NBA career.
USC - Don't let one second half collapse fool you: this is a great basketball team. Losing only Lodrick Stewart, and retaining Gibson, Young, Pruitt and Hackett, the Trojans would be a contender next year even if they didn't bring in a single freshman. But oh yeah, didn't they get that Mayo guy? Mayo and Pruitt, with his newfound point guard skills, will be an incredible back court tandem next year. Both about 6'5" and prolific scorers, they will essential have two point guards and two shooting guards at the same time. Young is one of the best scorers in the nation, and Gibson is becoming one of the best big men. Furthermore, Mayo apparently helped Tim Floyd recruit before even getting to USC, and he's bringing his posse. The Trojans should be scary-good next year, and a championship appearance is not out of the question.
STOCK DOWN (STIFFS)
Tyler Hansbrough - It will be interesting to see whether Hansbrough will ever have a place in the NBA. Even when he plays well, it looks like he's an eight grader who has already had his growth spurt and is just stronger than his opponents but still fast. He can hit the little fade-away jumper, and he pivots and upfakes well, but he doesn't really play with his back to the basket. And he sure as hell can't play on the wing. So where does that allow him to play at the next level when opponents are bigger and stronger? I don't know. He was absolutely pathetic on Friday; it was amazing that UNC won despite his performance. Hansbrough had 5 points and 4 rebounds...maybe it wasn't just the mask that was "causing him" to play poorly. I'm glad this happened because I was sick of people talking about him disposing of the mask against MSU like it was Willis Reed running into Madison Square Garden. I think the longer Hansbrough stays in college, and the more we see that he has already reached his pinnacle, the less interest NBA teams will have in him. He better not play another game like this vs. Georgetown; Roy Hibbert might literally eat him. Either way, this over-achiever should enter the draft as soon as possible.
Ty Lawson - A bird, a plane, superman? No, that was just Ty Lawson pushing the ball up the court. He's the fastest player I've ever seen with the basketball. However, Lawson was 2-10 from the field against USC and finished with just 4 points and 4 assists despite playing 32 minutes. It's a real testament to how deep this team is that with Lawson and Hansbrough playing the games they did, UNC was still able to come away with a win. Lawson has a mountain of potential, but he needs to work on both his shot, and his shot selection--a bad combination. One possession sticks out in my mind in which Lawson stood around doing nothing before launching a deep three that smacked off the backboard. This game exposed both his strengths and weaknesses, but the latter prevailed in this one. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if he steps it up next round.
Kevin Kruger - I hate Kevin Kruger. And it's no fault of his own. Maybe I've just played on one too many AAU teams where one of the player's self-serving father is the coach. Kevin Kruger is by no means a terrible basketball player, and he belongs on the UNLV team. I'm just not convinced that he should be playing 30+ minutes every single game. But that's exactly how much his daddy... coach rather, played him in all of the tournament games. Over the three games, Kruger was 6-28 from the three point line. Over the course of the entire season, he shot under 40% from the floor and under 35% from the three-point-line. I must admit, my perspective is biased, but those stats don't lie.
Referees - I feel that two of the four games played on Friday were significantly impacted by poor officiating. The first and more obvious game was Georgetown vs. Vanderbilt. I'm all for the belief that in the end of games, refs should let the players decide the outcome; but they shouldn't swallow their whistles. On Jeff Green's game winning shot, there is absolutely no question that he traveled. He blatantly switched pivot feet. Poor Vanderbilt played their hearts out only to lose on a shot that never should have counted. The second game that I thought was very poorly officiated, especially in the closing minutes, was USC-UNC. With about 1:40 left, Hansbrough clearly went over the back on an offensive rebound. The next trip down the floor for USC, trailing only by 6, Nick Young missed a three-pointer and ended up on the ground because he was tackled after the ball left his hand; again, no call. Still only down 6, but with only 50 seconds left, Taj Gibson fouled out of the game on a ticky-tac "moving screen" in which he barely made contact with the flopping UNC player. Tim Floyd understandably protested, immediately getting a technical, and the game was over. Butler also got a few tough calls near the end of their bout with Florida. All in all, the referees made things hard for the little guys.
AJ Graves -The only real mid-major remaining fell and ugly, beloved point guard AJ Graves had a sub-par performance. Graves went 4-13 from the field and 1-6 from behind the arc, as Butler came close to Florida, but couldn't hold on. Graves has often been compared to Steve Nash, but considering how much better Nash is as a passer, I don't think Graves will be able to make it. He's a great shooter and has led Butler all season long, but he's too small and unathletic to play in the NBA unless he develops much better point guard skills. He picked a bad time to have an off-game, but he's only a junior, and Butler could have another good season next year.
Corey Brewer - Brewer was only 3-10 from the field in Florida's win over Butler, and played one of his worst overall games this season. However, it hardly slowed Florida due to strong play from both Horford and Noah. Brewer is usually a great shooter, and he's very athletic. Though his poor performance in this round of play lands him in my "stock down" category, the game won't really have much negative effect on his value. Brewer could be a late lottery pick and at worst is a mid-low first round draft choice even if he doesn't have the best tournament. We've seen enough of Brewer and this whole Florida squad over the last two years that one bad game isn't going to hurt them the way it might hurt someone like Graves who gets far fewer chances to impress over the course of their career.
Taj Gibson - USC's only formidable big man, the freshman standout certainly pulled his weight in the Trojans valiant effort against an over-talented North Carolina squad. Gibson had 16 points and 12 rebounds, and that hardly tells the story. USC dominated their fellow acronymic opponent in the first half in which Gibson had already notched a double-double (12 and 10). He was single-handedly destroying the deep Carolina front court, especially Hansbrough. In the second half, he picked up three very quick fouls (giving him four total) and had to be taken out of the game, at which point UNC immediately took over. Had Gibson stayed out of foul trouble, the Trojans could be playing Sunday for a spot in the Final Four.
Tajuan Porter - My favorite player left in the tournament, the diminuitive Oregon guard has been a hot or cold player all season long. Actually, he's been more of a burning or freezing player. Friday, he was on fire. Standing at only 5'6", Porter is often overlooked by his opponents (no pun intended). In the Sweet Sixteen matchup with UNLV he managed to torch the Runnin' Rebels with 33 points on only 17 field goal attempts. The freshman Porter was 8-12 from the three-point-line, and simply took over the game. He continues to make a convincing argument that despite his tiny stature, he could be perhaps a better shooting version of an Earl Boykins-type player at the next level; he has that same lightning quickness.
Branden Wright - Friday was a good night for freshmen. Branden Wright, the likely number 3 overall draft pick after Oden and Durant, carried a desperate UNC team to the Elite Eight. With Tyler Hansbrough pulling a disappearing act that Harry Houdini would proud of, Wright came to the rescue. Wright is almost disturbingly long and athletic, but he's more than just another player with "tremendous upside"; he's been playing phenomenal basketball and is incredibly polished for a 19-year-old. Against USC, Wright put up 21 and 9, and also proved to be the most mature player on the team, not taking an uncontested dunk with 25 seconds left, an opportunity that Reyshawn Terry would be salivating over. His maturity was more broad than that though; Wright maintained composure even when his team was trailing by 16 points, and was without question the best player on the floor in the second half of that game.
Gabe Pruitt - USC has been missing two things all season long: frontcourt depth, and true point guard. They couldn't magically manufacture another big man to solve the former, which proved to be a fatal flaw, but Pruitt did a fantastic job of satisfying the latter. The natural shooting guard successfully turned himself into a point guard, which, in addition to solidifying USC as a great team, should help Pruitt as a professional prospect. Somehow, there is more appeal to an oversized sharp-shooting point guard than an undersized shooting guard. Pruitt was able to relieve the pressure on freshman Daniel Hackett, another natural 2 who had been trying to play the point. He finished the UNC game with 13 points, 7 assists, and only 2 turnovers.
Malik Hairston - Originally the most highly touted of Oregon's potent foursome of Hairston, Taylor, Brooks, and Porter, Malik stepped it up in their victory over UNLV. At only 6'6", the shooting guard pulled down 11 boards to go along with his 14 points on only 8 shots. Hairston is a very solid shooter, a great athlete, a fantastic defender, and rock solid at 200 pounds of all muscle. The junior is relatively young for his grade--he just turned 20--and if he continues to play like this for the remainder of the tournament and into next year, he should get the NBA looks that seemed imminent when he first came to Oregon.
Al Horford - Al Horford is better than Joakim Noah. Granted, both players will be good NBA players and top-7 draft picks. Granted, Joakim Noah is more unique and interesting due to his hair, his father, and his skill set. Granted, Noah was the focal point of their championship run last year. But Al Horford has been more consistent all season. His performance on Friday was not jaw-dropping, but with 16 points and 7 rebounds, and 4 blocks, Horford continued to be extremely solid for a Gator team that is positioned for a repeat. He's a much better athlete than Noah, and handles the ball and sees the floor extremely well for a 6'10"-240 pound-power forward. He has an invaluable mid-range jump shot in his repertoire, is a great shot-blocker. Horford has put up more points, rebounds, and blocks than Noah throughout the season, and I expect him to be an All-Star at some point in his NBA career.
USC - Don't let one second half collapse fool you: this is a great basketball team. Losing only Lodrick Stewart, and retaining Gibson, Young, Pruitt and Hackett, the Trojans would be a contender next year even if they didn't bring in a single freshman. But oh yeah, didn't they get that Mayo guy? Mayo and Pruitt, with his newfound point guard skills, will be an incredible back court tandem next year. Both about 6'5" and prolific scorers, they will essential have two point guards and two shooting guards at the same time. Young is one of the best scorers in the nation, and Gibson is becoming one of the best big men. Furthermore, Mayo apparently helped Tim Floyd recruit before even getting to USC, and he's bringing his posse. The Trojans should be scary-good next year, and a championship appearance is not out of the question.
STOCK DOWN (STIFFS)
Tyler Hansbrough - It will be interesting to see whether Hansbrough will ever have a place in the NBA. Even when he plays well, it looks like he's an eight grader who has already had his growth spurt and is just stronger than his opponents but still fast. He can hit the little fade-away jumper, and he pivots and upfakes well, but he doesn't really play with his back to the basket. And he sure as hell can't play on the wing. So where does that allow him to play at the next level when opponents are bigger and stronger? I don't know. He was absolutely pathetic on Friday; it was amazing that UNC won despite his performance. Hansbrough had 5 points and 4 rebounds...maybe it wasn't just the mask that was "causing him" to play poorly. I'm glad this happened because I was sick of people talking about him disposing of the mask against MSU like it was Willis Reed running into Madison Square Garden. I think the longer Hansbrough stays in college, and the more we see that he has already reached his pinnacle, the less interest NBA teams will have in him. He better not play another game like this vs. Georgetown; Roy Hibbert might literally eat him. Either way, this over-achiever should enter the draft as soon as possible.
Ty Lawson - A bird, a plane, superman? No, that was just Ty Lawson pushing the ball up the court. He's the fastest player I've ever seen with the basketball. However, Lawson was 2-10 from the field against USC and finished with just 4 points and 4 assists despite playing 32 minutes. It's a real testament to how deep this team is that with Lawson and Hansbrough playing the games they did, UNC was still able to come away with a win. Lawson has a mountain of potential, but he needs to work on both his shot, and his shot selection--a bad combination. One possession sticks out in my mind in which Lawson stood around doing nothing before launching a deep three that smacked off the backboard. This game exposed both his strengths and weaknesses, but the latter prevailed in this one. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if he steps it up next round.
Kevin Kruger - I hate Kevin Kruger. And it's no fault of his own. Maybe I've just played on one too many AAU teams where one of the player's self-serving father is the coach. Kevin Kruger is by no means a terrible basketball player, and he belongs on the UNLV team. I'm just not convinced that he should be playing 30+ minutes every single game. But that's exactly how much his daddy... coach rather, played him in all of the tournament games. Over the three games, Kruger was 6-28 from the three point line. Over the course of the entire season, he shot under 40% from the floor and under 35% from the three-point-line. I must admit, my perspective is biased, but those stats don't lie.
Referees - I feel that two of the four games played on Friday were significantly impacted by poor officiating. The first and more obvious game was Georgetown vs. Vanderbilt. I'm all for the belief that in the end of games, refs should let the players decide the outcome; but they shouldn't swallow their whistles. On Jeff Green's game winning shot, there is absolutely no question that he traveled. He blatantly switched pivot feet. Poor Vanderbilt played their hearts out only to lose on a shot that never should have counted. The second game that I thought was very poorly officiated, especially in the closing minutes, was USC-UNC. With about 1:40 left, Hansbrough clearly went over the back on an offensive rebound. The next trip down the floor for USC, trailing only by 6, Nick Young missed a three-pointer and ended up on the ground because he was tackled after the ball left his hand; again, no call. Still only down 6, but with only 50 seconds left, Taj Gibson fouled out of the game on a ticky-tac "moving screen" in which he barely made contact with the flopping UNC player. Tim Floyd understandably protested, immediately getting a technical, and the game was over. Butler also got a few tough calls near the end of their bout with Florida. All in all, the referees made things hard for the little guys.
AJ Graves -The only real mid-major remaining fell and ugly, beloved point guard AJ Graves had a sub-par performance. Graves went 4-13 from the field and 1-6 from behind the arc, as Butler came close to Florida, but couldn't hold on. Graves has often been compared to Steve Nash, but considering how much better Nash is as a passer, I don't think Graves will be able to make it. He's a great shooter and has led Butler all season long, but he's too small and unathletic to play in the NBA unless he develops much better point guard skills. He picked a bad time to have an off-game, but he's only a junior, and Butler could have another good season next year.
Corey Brewer - Brewer was only 3-10 from the field in Florida's win over Butler, and played one of his worst overall games this season. However, it hardly slowed Florida due to strong play from both Horford and Noah. Brewer is usually a great shooter, and he's very athletic. Though his poor performance in this round of play lands him in my "stock down" category, the game won't really have much negative effect on his value. Brewer could be a late lottery pick and at worst is a mid-low first round draft choice even if he doesn't have the best tournament. We've seen enough of Brewer and this whole Florida squad over the last two years that one bad game isn't going to hurt them the way it might hurt someone like Graves who gets far fewer chances to impress over the course of their career.
Thursday, March 22, 2007
Thursday Stock Watch (Stars and Stiffs)
STOCK UP (STARS)
Brandon Rush - Rush only had 12 points, but it was on 6-6 shooting. Furthermore, the bright-futured sophomore showed his versatility as a player, contributing with 5 assists and 5 rebounds. He seems to come up with big plays right when Kansas needs them; the momentum shifted when Rush threw a beautiful alley-oop pass to Darrell Arthur, and Kansas never looked back.
Missouri Valley Conference - Southern Illinois couldn't come a way with a W, but their defensive prowess hindered the national powerhouse Jayhawks enough to make them look like a sixth grade travel team. Well, not quite, but they certainly made things interesting in a game that many people (myself included) thought would be a blowout. The Salukis' performance reinforced that last year's MVC success in the tournament (Bradley, Wichita State) was not a fluke. It's an incredibly tough league in which the defense is the best in the nation. Don't expect this favorite mid-major conference to fade over the upcoming years.
Bruce Pearl - When I saw Bruce Pearl say on Pardon the Interruption that he didn't think his team had any chance of winning it all because of their size, I took it to heart. He was almost pleasantly surprised. Perhaps the comment was a tactical move because he wanted his team to fly under the radar, but if you know much about Bruce Pearl, he was probably just being honest. The Tennessee coach is a breath of fresh air; he's whacky, earnest, and hilarious. And oh yeah, he's also a brilliant coach. I remember watching him tear apart my 4 seed Boston College Eagles as a 12 seed in the second round while coaching UW-Milwaukee. Yes, Tennessee lost to Ohio State, but Pearl took Oden out of the game with foul trouble by having his players go right at him, and in turn, they were in position to win the game. Bruce Pearl has done an unbelievable job at Tennessee in the two years he's been there.
Jeremy Hunt - In a game devoid of offense, the Memphis sharpshooter came off the bench and provided a much-needed spark for the Tigers, pouring in 19 points on 6-12 shooting (3-7 three-point fgs). When Hunt is hot, he can score with the best of them--he scored 25 in the first half at UAB earlier this season. The senior most likely will not get drafted this year, but he could find his way to the NBA eventually with a great career overseas.
Ron Lewis - Much like Hunt, an NBA career is not imminent for Ron Lewis. He may as well make the most of his college career. And that's exactly what he's been doing. After the cold-blooded three he sunk to send the Xavier game into overtime, you had to wonder whether the rest of the tournament would just be a letdown for him. Well, wonder no more. Lewis put his team on his shoulders, dropping 25 points in OSU's tremendous comeback win over the most stubborn Volunteers in the world.
Chris Lofton - In a previous entry, I said that Lofton would put forth another 25 point performance. Well, that's what he needed, but he only got 24 as Ohio State lost by a single point. Lofton was heroic in the defeat however, hitting 6 three-pointers, including a huge one near the end. He carried Tennessee throughout the tournament, and it's a shame he couldn't take them one more round.
Bill Raftery - I don't have to say much about Raftery if anyone has watched a game with him announcing. He is simply the most entertaining announcer not named Dick Vitale that exists on the face of the Earth. With his inexplicable outbursts, screaming terms that don't make sense to the average viewer, like "THERE'S A LITTLE LINGERIE ON THE DECK!", who wouldn't rather listen to him and anyone else than Jim Nantz and Billy Packer?
STOCK DOWN (STIFFS)
Acie Law IV - Not only did the Naismith finalist go 6-17 from the floor, but that 17th attempt was a missed layup that would have put the Aggies up 3 with 45 seconds left to go. For someone who has been repeatedly praised for his late-game heroics and touted as some sort of Robert Horry disciple, this was quite the mistake. Law will probably still be a mid-first round draft pick, but this game certainly didn't help his standing.
Joey Dorsey - The man that most of us only know as "that guy who is always dunking on SportsCenter highlights where Memphis is thrashing pathetic conference opponents by upwards of 25 points" fouled out of the Texas A&M game with just 8 points and 4 rebounds. For someone with his athletic abilities to be that unproductive is really almost impressive. As Ron Burgundy would say, "Actually, I'm not even mad. That's amazing!"
Aaron Gray - 10 points, 6 rebounds, 4 fouls. Honestly, he's just too slow to play at this level, let alone the NBA. He's a projected first round draft pick, but more importantly, he's a lock to be the next Eric Montross. Unless Six Minute Abs really works as well as it does on the commercials, Gray better take his first round draft pick guaranteed contract and start saving the money before anyone realizes just how immobile this guy actually is.
Sherrod Collins - The Kansas point guard who has been "the diference-maker" in the Jayhawks' success toward the end of the season finished the SIU game with 2 points and 1 assist. The underwhelming performance should raise some red flags for Kansas as they go on to face teams like UCLA and Florida. If he continues to play like that, they don't stand a chance of achieving their goal of winning the National Championship.
Greg Oden - Give me Kevin Durant! Oden could easily be the number one pick of the draft, but I wouldn't say he's earned it so much as he's just a freak-of-nature-athlete. Oden almost cost his team the game by being unable to stay out of foul trouble once again. People will likely remember image of him blocking that final shot, (which was after the buzzer and would not have counted anyways by the way,) but he finished with just 9 points and 3 rebounds. With Durant consistently putting up 30 point games on a team that is nothing without him, Oden has been little more than an intimidation factor under the hoop at times for the Buckeyes. There is no doubt he will be a great professional player, but I could never pass on Durant for him.
Brandon Rush - Rush only had 12 points, but it was on 6-6 shooting. Furthermore, the bright-futured sophomore showed his versatility as a player, contributing with 5 assists and 5 rebounds. He seems to come up with big plays right when Kansas needs them; the momentum shifted when Rush threw a beautiful alley-oop pass to Darrell Arthur, and Kansas never looked back.
Missouri Valley Conference - Southern Illinois couldn't come a way with a W, but their defensive prowess hindered the national powerhouse Jayhawks enough to make them look like a sixth grade travel team. Well, not quite, but they certainly made things interesting in a game that many people (myself included) thought would be a blowout. The Salukis' performance reinforced that last year's MVC success in the tournament (Bradley, Wichita State) was not a fluke. It's an incredibly tough league in which the defense is the best in the nation. Don't expect this favorite mid-major conference to fade over the upcoming years.
Bruce Pearl - When I saw Bruce Pearl say on Pardon the Interruption that he didn't think his team had any chance of winning it all because of their size, I took it to heart. He was almost pleasantly surprised. Perhaps the comment was a tactical move because he wanted his team to fly under the radar, but if you know much about Bruce Pearl, he was probably just being honest. The Tennessee coach is a breath of fresh air; he's whacky, earnest, and hilarious. And oh yeah, he's also a brilliant coach. I remember watching him tear apart my 4 seed Boston College Eagles as a 12 seed in the second round while coaching UW-Milwaukee. Yes, Tennessee lost to Ohio State, but Pearl took Oden out of the game with foul trouble by having his players go right at him, and in turn, they were in position to win the game. Bruce Pearl has done an unbelievable job at Tennessee in the two years he's been there.
Jeremy Hunt - In a game devoid of offense, the Memphis sharpshooter came off the bench and provided a much-needed spark for the Tigers, pouring in 19 points on 6-12 shooting (3-7 three-point fgs). When Hunt is hot, he can score with the best of them--he scored 25 in the first half at UAB earlier this season. The senior most likely will not get drafted this year, but he could find his way to the NBA eventually with a great career overseas.
Ron Lewis - Much like Hunt, an NBA career is not imminent for Ron Lewis. He may as well make the most of his college career. And that's exactly what he's been doing. After the cold-blooded three he sunk to send the Xavier game into overtime, you had to wonder whether the rest of the tournament would just be a letdown for him. Well, wonder no more. Lewis put his team on his shoulders, dropping 25 points in OSU's tremendous comeback win over the most stubborn Volunteers in the world.
Chris Lofton - In a previous entry, I said that Lofton would put forth another 25 point performance. Well, that's what he needed, but he only got 24 as Ohio State lost by a single point. Lofton was heroic in the defeat however, hitting 6 three-pointers, including a huge one near the end. He carried Tennessee throughout the tournament, and it's a shame he couldn't take them one more round.
Bill Raftery - I don't have to say much about Raftery if anyone has watched a game with him announcing. He is simply the most entertaining announcer not named Dick Vitale that exists on the face of the Earth. With his inexplicable outbursts, screaming terms that don't make sense to the average viewer, like "THERE'S A LITTLE LINGERIE ON THE DECK!", who wouldn't rather listen to him and anyone else than Jim Nantz and Billy Packer?
STOCK DOWN (STIFFS)
Acie Law IV - Not only did the Naismith finalist go 6-17 from the floor, but that 17th attempt was a missed layup that would have put the Aggies up 3 with 45 seconds left to go. For someone who has been repeatedly praised for his late-game heroics and touted as some sort of Robert Horry disciple, this was quite the mistake. Law will probably still be a mid-first round draft pick, but this game certainly didn't help his standing.
Joey Dorsey - The man that most of us only know as "that guy who is always dunking on SportsCenter highlights where Memphis is thrashing pathetic conference opponents by upwards of 25 points" fouled out of the Texas A&M game with just 8 points and 4 rebounds. For someone with his athletic abilities to be that unproductive is really almost impressive. As Ron Burgundy would say, "Actually, I'm not even mad. That's amazing!"
Aaron Gray - 10 points, 6 rebounds, 4 fouls. Honestly, he's just too slow to play at this level, let alone the NBA. He's a projected first round draft pick, but more importantly, he's a lock to be the next Eric Montross. Unless Six Minute Abs really works as well as it does on the commercials, Gray better take his first round draft pick guaranteed contract and start saving the money before anyone realizes just how immobile this guy actually is.
Sherrod Collins - The Kansas point guard who has been "the diference-maker" in the Jayhawks' success toward the end of the season finished the SIU game with 2 points and 1 assist. The underwhelming performance should raise some red flags for Kansas as they go on to face teams like UCLA and Florida. If he continues to play like that, they don't stand a chance of achieving their goal of winning the National Championship.
Greg Oden - Give me Kevin Durant! Oden could easily be the number one pick of the draft, but I wouldn't say he's earned it so much as he's just a freak-of-nature-athlete. Oden almost cost his team the game by being unable to stay out of foul trouble once again. People will likely remember image of him blocking that final shot, (which was after the buzzer and would not have counted anyways by the way,) but he finished with just 9 points and 3 rebounds. With Durant consistently putting up 30 point games on a team that is nothing without him, Oden has been little more than an intimidation factor under the hoop at times for the Buckeyes. There is no doubt he will be a great professional player, but I could never pass on Durant for him.
The Best Worst Call in Tournament History
As time ticked down on Texas A&M's wonderful season, the Aggie faithful were likely yelling expletives at the refs through their TV screen. I was, and I didn't even care about the game. With 3.1 seconds left and the Aggies down 1, they inbounded the ball (carelessly) from under their own hoop. Luckily for them, a Memphis player tipped the errant pass right before it went out of bounds, giving A&M the ball back on the sideline. While the officials checked in at the replay booth, a place where they often spend minutes to debate fractions of seconds, the announcers agreed that at most, two tenths should be taken off the clock. There was a moment of shock, followed quickly by outrage when the refs decided to take 1.1 seconds off, leaving the Aggies with only 2.0 seconds. In situations like these, one second is enough time to make the difference between a great look at the hoop and a hopeless heave. The Aggies, of course, got the latter.
Before I joined the large group of people that will be sending these refs hate-mail, I decided to watch the play closely one last time. Imagine my surprise when I realized that the ball bounced in-bounds by a few inches before bouncing up towards the stands. The ball was never dead until a man behind the table grabbed the ball when it hit him in the chest. The refs got it right.
But remember the infamous Tom Brady tuck rule play that won the Patriots their first Super Bowl? The refs got that one right too. I felt unsatisfied. Had the man reached over and stopped the ball as soon as he could have, or there was a broadcasting TV in front of him, there would have been another half-second on the clock. It just doesn't seem right that a season of work should come down to a random reaction of an audience member, or the placement of sideline televisions. Nonetheless, as unfair as it may seem, there is no better solution. I suppose the best solution is simply to not put yourselves in that position. If Acie Law IV, the "Mr. Clutch", never-misses-an-important-shot, most-valuable-player-to-his-team's-success Naismith nominee hadn't missed a layup with 45 seconds left, they probably would have won.
But that's just the way the ball bounces.
Before I joined the large group of people that will be sending these refs hate-mail, I decided to watch the play closely one last time. Imagine my surprise when I realized that the ball bounced in-bounds by a few inches before bouncing up towards the stands. The ball was never dead until a man behind the table grabbed the ball when it hit him in the chest. The refs got it right.
But remember the infamous Tom Brady tuck rule play that won the Patriots their first Super Bowl? The refs got that one right too. I felt unsatisfied. Had the man reached over and stopped the ball as soon as he could have, or there was a broadcasting TV in front of him, there would have been another half-second on the clock. It just doesn't seem right that a season of work should come down to a random reaction of an audience member, or the placement of sideline televisions. Nonetheless, as unfair as it may seem, there is no better solution. I suppose the best solution is simply to not put yourselves in that position. If Acie Law IV, the "Mr. Clutch", never-misses-an-important-shot, most-valuable-player-to-his-team's-success Naismith nominee hadn't missed a layup with 45 seconds left, they probably would have won.
But that's just the way the ball bounces.
Sunday, March 18, 2007
10 (Kind of) Bold Predictions for the Rest of the Tournament
10. Florida and Oregon will both win their Sweet Sixteen games by double digits. Talent-wise, Florida is exponentially better than Butler, who is athetically challenged and small enough that I could potentially play Center for them. Oregon just has too many scoring options; if Brooks or Porter aren't on, Hairston or Taylor probably is. They are playing great basketball of late, disregarding the scary first round game vs. Miami (OH) which they probably took for granted.
9. Texas A&M will make the Final Four. Having already knocked off the second best team in the region in Louisville, look for the Aggies to roll over Memphis and find a way to neutralize Oden as they continue to play their refreshing fundamentally sound style of basketball. I'm already dreading hearing every sports anchor on the planet joking, "Memphis fought the Law, and the Law won!"
8. UNC will not make the Final Four. Despite having more talent than any college basketball team in the history of planet Earth, UNC has an average basketball IQ that rivals that of Jamal Crawford. Reyshawn Terry, a very talented and athletic senior, consistently shoots with 30 seconds left on the shot clock in situations when they need to control the ball. They play at only one speed: really really fast. It's only a matter of time before they meet a formidable opponent, and these kinds of things come back to haunt them. I don't see them getting through both USC and Georgetown. Speaking of which...
7. USC will give the Tar Heels a run for their money. USC was the most underrated team coming into the tournament, as most "experts" wrote them off in either a first round upset to Arkansas or a second round thrashing courtesy of the Texas Kevin Durants. However, USC is one of only 5 teams to have won both games so far by double digits. They have four NBA-level players in Gibson, Pruitt, Young, and Stewart. Size should be the only problem against UNC's dominant frontcourt, but USC's defensive tenacity and sharpshooting should be enough to make the game very interesting. I have this game on upset watch.
6. Jeff Green will turn things around and lead Georgetown to the Final Four. As one of the top pro prospects still playing in the NCAA tournament, Green has disappointed in the first two rounds. Don't expect this to continue, Green had been playing phenomenal basketball towards the end of the year, proving that he was more than a tremendous athlete with great potential. Once he reverts back to that Big East Player Of the Year form, Georgetown should be nearly unstoppable.
5. Derrick Byars will put forth a valiant effort in a tough loss to Georgetown. The 34 year-old senior (Okay, he's only 23. But 15 is the new 23) is the best player still playing in the tournament that you've never heard. Hell, he might be the best player in the tournament, period. Byars combines incredible athleticism with a beautiful, rangeless jumpshot that seems to scrape the bottom of the net at all the right times. He carries his over-achieving team on his shoulders and almost single-handedly defeated a tough defensive-minded Washington St. team to reach the Sweet 16. I expect to see Byars put up 20+ points and 7+ rebounds.
4. UCLA-Pitt will be the least exciting Sweet Sixteen game to watch. Expect UCLA to beat Pitt by about 8 points in a game that was never really close enough to make you care and a total of approximately 23 points scored between the teams. But seriously, I would be surprised if the teams combined for more points than Tennessee scored alone in the first round, 121. Prediction: UCLA 63, Pitt 55. And Aaron Gray puts forth another stock-dropping performance...he's in worse shape than Al Gore.
3. Chris Lofton will light up Ohio State. Will it be enough to overcome Tennessee's size disadvantage? Maybe not. But nonetheless, Lofton has been incredible thus far, and should continue to impress with another 25 point performance. Like every other good player in the entire nation who doesn't go to a perennial powerhouse school, Lofton is "truly a great story" as he was evem overlooked by his hometown school, Kentucky. He really "plays with a chip on his shoulder."
2. The nation's two best teams will not meet in the National Championship. Kansas and Florida are the two strongest teams in the tournament, and they will unfortunately meet in the Semi-Finals, barring any upsets. That game is must-watch TV for any college basketball fan. Or pro basketball fan for that matter...the game should have at least 8 players who will get drafted to the NBA at some point. Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Julian Wright, and Darrell Arthur are four of the most talented, athletic, and versatile big-men in the country. The foursome are all likely lottery picks when ever they choose to make that jump. I expect this game to be an instant classic, so I will likely be disappointed no matter what.
1. Florida will repeat as the National Champions. It's extremely rare for any team to win back-to-back titles, but when a championship team loses nobody from the previous year, all of those players improve, they grow to play better as a team, and they are playing their best basketball of the season, how could anyone pick against them? They have the two best bigs in the nation in Horford and Noah, an above-average shooting, great decision-making point guard in Taurean Green, a probable top 15 NBA pick multi-talented wingman in Corey Brewer, and a lights out shooting guard in Lee Humphrey. They play as hard on defense as they do on offense, which is hard to find in teams that can actually score a basketball. Chris Richard is as good off the bench for Noah and Horford as most teams number one post player. Billy Donovan always gets the most out of his players, and when you get the most out of a team that is also the most talented (excluding maybe UNC), good things are going to happen. Florida beats Georgetown in the championship 72-65.
If my first weekend bracket success is any indication, I will be lucky if more than one of these predictions come true. I recommend betting against any team I pick for the remainder of the tournament.
9. Texas A&M will make the Final Four. Having already knocked off the second best team in the region in Louisville, look for the Aggies to roll over Memphis and find a way to neutralize Oden as they continue to play their refreshing fundamentally sound style of basketball. I'm already dreading hearing every sports anchor on the planet joking, "Memphis fought the Law, and the Law won!"
8. UNC will not make the Final Four. Despite having more talent than any college basketball team in the history of planet Earth, UNC has an average basketball IQ that rivals that of Jamal Crawford. Reyshawn Terry, a very talented and athletic senior, consistently shoots with 30 seconds left on the shot clock in situations when they need to control the ball. They play at only one speed: really really fast. It's only a matter of time before they meet a formidable opponent, and these kinds of things come back to haunt them. I don't see them getting through both USC and Georgetown. Speaking of which...
7. USC will give the Tar Heels a run for their money. USC was the most underrated team coming into the tournament, as most "experts" wrote them off in either a first round upset to Arkansas or a second round thrashing courtesy of the Texas Kevin Durants. However, USC is one of only 5 teams to have won both games so far by double digits. They have four NBA-level players in Gibson, Pruitt, Young, and Stewart. Size should be the only problem against UNC's dominant frontcourt, but USC's defensive tenacity and sharpshooting should be enough to make the game very interesting. I have this game on upset watch.
6. Jeff Green will turn things around and lead Georgetown to the Final Four. As one of the top pro prospects still playing in the NCAA tournament, Green has disappointed in the first two rounds. Don't expect this to continue, Green had been playing phenomenal basketball towards the end of the year, proving that he was more than a tremendous athlete with great potential. Once he reverts back to that Big East Player Of the Year form, Georgetown should be nearly unstoppable.
5. Derrick Byars will put forth a valiant effort in a tough loss to Georgetown. The 34 year-old senior (Okay, he's only 23. But 15 is the new 23) is the best player still playing in the tournament that you've never heard. Hell, he might be the best player in the tournament, period. Byars combines incredible athleticism with a beautiful, rangeless jumpshot that seems to scrape the bottom of the net at all the right times. He carries his over-achieving team on his shoulders and almost single-handedly defeated a tough defensive-minded Washington St. team to reach the Sweet 16. I expect to see Byars put up 20+ points and 7+ rebounds.
4. UCLA-Pitt will be the least exciting Sweet Sixteen game to watch. Expect UCLA to beat Pitt by about 8 points in a game that was never really close enough to make you care and a total of approximately 23 points scored between the teams. But seriously, I would be surprised if the teams combined for more points than Tennessee scored alone in the first round, 121. Prediction: UCLA 63, Pitt 55. And Aaron Gray puts forth another stock-dropping performance...he's in worse shape than Al Gore.
3. Chris Lofton will light up Ohio State. Will it be enough to overcome Tennessee's size disadvantage? Maybe not. But nonetheless, Lofton has been incredible thus far, and should continue to impress with another 25 point performance. Like every other good player in the entire nation who doesn't go to a perennial powerhouse school, Lofton is "truly a great story" as he was evem overlooked by his hometown school, Kentucky. He really "plays with a chip on his shoulder."
2. The nation's two best teams will not meet in the National Championship. Kansas and Florida are the two strongest teams in the tournament, and they will unfortunately meet in the Semi-Finals, barring any upsets. That game is must-watch TV for any college basketball fan. Or pro basketball fan for that matter...the game should have at least 8 players who will get drafted to the NBA at some point. Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Julian Wright, and Darrell Arthur are four of the most talented, athletic, and versatile big-men in the country. The foursome are all likely lottery picks when ever they choose to make that jump. I expect this game to be an instant classic, so I will likely be disappointed no matter what.
1. Florida will repeat as the National Champions. It's extremely rare for any team to win back-to-back titles, but when a championship team loses nobody from the previous year, all of those players improve, they grow to play better as a team, and they are playing their best basketball of the season, how could anyone pick against them? They have the two best bigs in the nation in Horford and Noah, an above-average shooting, great decision-making point guard in Taurean Green, a probable top 15 NBA pick multi-talented wingman in Corey Brewer, and a lights out shooting guard in Lee Humphrey. They play as hard on defense as they do on offense, which is hard to find in teams that can actually score a basketball. Chris Richard is as good off the bench for Noah and Horford as most teams number one post player. Billy Donovan always gets the most out of his players, and when you get the most out of a team that is also the most talented (excluding maybe UNC), good things are going to happen. Florida beats Georgetown in the championship 72-65.
If my first weekend bracket success is any indication, I will be lucky if more than one of these predictions come true. I recommend betting against any team I pick for the remainder of the tournament.
Saturday, March 17, 2007
The NCAA Tournament All-Ugly Team
C - Lorenzo Mata, UCLA - The loser of the genetic lottery, Mata looks like a 6'10" re-creation of Moe Szyslak from The Simpsons . Seriously. In last year's tournament, he wore a mask to protect his then-broken nose, and it was amazingly able to worsen his already hideous look.
F - Joakim Noah, Florida - Lets be honest, Noah really needs no explanation for his placement on this elite squad; when he blew the famed kiss to the UCLA cheerleader last year, countless Americans threw up simultaneously. And his dance after winning the SEC championship? Simply atrocious.
F - Robbie Cowgill, Washington St. - In addition to having a name that lends itself to the nickname "Cowgirl", the Cougars big man looks like he has down syndrome to go along with his hideous white-boy afro and occasional gruffly beard.
G - Jared Dudley, Boston College - Dudley will have to play guard on this oversized squad. The beloved BC star is much better than he looks, which is good because he seems to be the result of a disastrous experiment in which hip hop butcher Jim Jones was bred with an ostrich.
G - Edgar Sosa, Louisville - Sosa actually impresses me most out of this bunch in that he has no distinguishing feature or horrible hairstyle; the man is just flat out ugly. It seems like things on his face are just poorly positioned.
There you have it, the 2007 All-Ugly team. My condolences to everyone I offended, including the innocent, but undebatably ugly players who were lucky enough to make the squad.
F - Joakim Noah, Florida - Lets be honest, Noah really needs no explanation for his placement on this elite squad; when he blew the famed kiss to the UCLA cheerleader last year, countless Americans threw up simultaneously. And his dance after winning the SEC championship? Simply atrocious.
F - Robbie Cowgill, Washington St. - In addition to having a name that lends itself to the nickname "Cowgirl", the Cougars big man looks like he has down syndrome to go along with his hideous white-boy afro and occasional gruffly beard.
G - Jared Dudley, Boston College - Dudley will have to play guard on this oversized squad. The beloved BC star is much better than he looks, which is good because he seems to be the result of a disastrous experiment in which hip hop butcher Jim Jones was bred with an ostrich.
G - Edgar Sosa, Louisville - Sosa actually impresses me most out of this bunch in that he has no distinguishing feature or horrible hairstyle; the man is just flat out ugly. It seems like things on his face are just poorly positioned.
There you have it, the 2007 All-Ugly team. My condolences to everyone I offended, including the innocent, but undebatably ugly players who were lucky enough to make the squad.
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